There is a major concern overshadowing Britain’s recruitment sector: what will happen in the event of Brexit? And how will it affect recruitment?
Nearly 7 percent of all workers in the UK are EU nationals, a huge swathe of the job market, and many recruiters rely on the flexibility of the European labour market to keep their businesses afloat. With the UK experiencing skill gaps, sometimes the only way to fill positions is to hire internationally. With the EU referendum less than a month away, we look at how a vote to leave will affect British job recruitment, and whether or not Brexit is really something to be feared. Should Recruiters Be Worried About Leaving Europe?
From a recruiter’s point of view, a vote leave could have consequences ranging from negligible to life changing. It all comes down to post-exit negotiations. Leaving Europe isn’t like quitting a job, there will be lots of paperwork, processes and discussions to be had before a new status-quo is reached. One such discussion will be negotiations on trade between European nations, and nobody knows how these negotiations will go.
There is potential for an agreement allowing Britain to join the European trade bloc, just like Norway for example, without being a member of the EU. This means Britain will be a non-member state but still allow for trade to continue as normal, reducing the economic impact of the referendum. In order for this to happen, Britain would have to agree to the freedom of movement for goods, services, capital and, most importantly, labour. The result would be that immigration would be most unaffected; bar a couple of new regulations for recruiting, such as new insurances to cover healthcare. The effect on recruitment would be minimal, allowing businesses to carry on employing EU nationals and retain flexibility in employees.
This event is plausible, although not certain. Many voters are pushing for control of British borders, making immigration reduction a primary reason for the referendum. Although the ‘Norway model’ would be least disruptive, it would also probably fail to satisfy the Eurosceptics, as we’d still be living under the majority of EU regulations and paying EU fees, but we wouldn’t have any say in the decision making. If an agreement isn’t be reached, and Britain finds itself outside the European trade bloc, there would be much bigger impacts for immigration and recruitment. All EU candidates would have to abide by the same international immigration laws as other trans-continental candidates, and all those currently working in the UK will be affected by the same rules, making visas mandatory in almost all situations.
Most Current EU Employees Would Not Qualify for a Visa
In a recent study, it was revealed 9 out of 10 European nationals working in Britain would not gain a visa under the current laws. For recruiters, this statistic is guaranteed to ring alarm bells, as that equates to roughly 6 percent of the UK’s working population. Cutting 6 percent of the workforce would undoubtedly have serious ramifications for business, but it also demonstrates how it isn’t just enough to offer a job to EU nationals in order to secure their recruitment. Recently introduced regulations require non-EU nationals to earn £35,000 or more to settle or remain in Britain. Brexit would mean all EU nationals must do the same or face deportation. Most recruiters cannot offer a £35,000 salary to their prospects, nearly £10,000 above the national average. On the other hand, a mass exodus of EU nationals from the workplace could be seen as an opportunity for recruiters. Many vacant positions means lots of work to do and lots of commission to be earned.
If the UK Leaves the EU Things Will Change, But Not Quickly
The panic-stricken amongst us may be under the impression that Brexit will be an immediate process, with our European identity stripped from us with the snap of a finger. In reality, a vote to leave the EU will have long and lasting ramifications, especially for recruitment, but it is likely that we will have a period to adjust to these new changes. A two-year period of gradual change is expected to follow an exit from the European Union. This gives the government, and the European Union, an opportunity to ensure a smooth transition. Crucially for recruiters, it also allows for adjustments to recruitment strategies and plans to be drawn up about how international recruitment will work in the future.
Is Now The Best Time To Start Recruiting?
With the prospect of Brexit looming, now is the best time to start recruiting. While an exit may never come to fruition, it still remains too close to call. If we vote to stay, very little will change, but in the event of Brexit, the job market will be hit almost immediately. Rather than scrambling to adjust post-referendum, it is instead a better idea to begin recruitment programs now. By getting recruitment underway now, you avoid starting the process during an uneasy and unprecedented period of time following the vote.
Having a list of eager, potential employees is no bad thing either. As it is anticipated that the job market will begin to struggle with the demand for British national workers caused by an out vote, the best plan of attack is to strike early and get the recruits you need now. The most important thing to be clear on is that nothing will change at once. Your current EU national employees will still be your employees come June 24th, and will remain so over the coming year. What would likely change almost immediately, however, is an attitude towards international recruitment. Although no i’s have been dotted, nor t’s crossed, recruiters aren’t going to want to hire until the dust has settled. Unless, of course, your hire is within the parameters of the current international working visa laws.
Unfortunately as leaving would be unprecedented act – no country has ever left the European Union before – it is impossible to say with absolute certainty how immigration, and therefore recruitment, will be affected in the long term. Walking on such unsteady ground, the best thing recruiters can do is plan for the worst case scenario — in terms of EU national employability — and make preparations for an all-out leave, whether full visas under the current system come into effect. This will allow you to plan for staff that must be replaced after being forced to leave the country, and also where future employees will come from.
