Vacancies falling and redundancies rising according to CIPD survey
The latest quarterly CIPD/KPMG Labour Market Outlook (LMO) Survey of 1,221 UK employers shows employment prospects weaker than at any time since the survey began in 2004, with recruitment activity falling and redundancies set to increase.
This finding is particularly worrying given that the third quarter is normally the most buoyant for recruitment, as it covers the September wave of recruitment activity. Although the survey finds that more than one in four (29%) employers expect to increase staff levels in the third quarter, this represents a sharp drop from 37% in the second quarter and is the lowest third quarter LMO figure recorded since 2004.
The comparable third quarter LMO survey figures are: 2004 (58%), 2005 (48%), 2006 (43%), and 2007 (38%). The figures suggest that cracks are starting to appear in the jobs market, which has been one of the few bright spots in the UK economy until now. Key findings showing the extent of the employment downturn include:
- Four in five organisations (81%) – down from 86% in spring 2008 and in winter 2007-08 – are planning to recruit in the next three months.
- Over a quarter (27%) of organisations surveyed are planning on redundancies in the next three months. This is up by 5% from the last quarter, but still falls way short of the 38% recorded in winter 2007-08 when fears about the global crisis first emerged.
The report – free for CIPD members – can be viewed at: