A year of lockdowns, flexible working and will-they-ever-end Zoom calls is crawling towards its finale. A year that has subverted any sense of normality and turned HR management on its head, with teams adapting to a hybrid working environment and shifts in employee absence and sickness trends. In the midst of two lockdowns, it was not uncommon to clock how many days of your annual leave you had remaining, or that holiday you had booked and then been cancelled, and then for the thoughts to ponder, “I could take holiday… but I will literally be stuck at home… I may as well save them up.”

It becomes easy to foresee the problems that are going to arise for the HR manager/employee next year, scrambling to keep track of the numerous days carried over for each employee whilst simultaneously trying to account for workplace capacity, manageability, unplanned sickness and wellbeing, to name a few. It all looks a bit manic. However, before we even dive into next year’s certainties, there’s an impending challenge looming.

The final hurrah

What is beginning to transpire heading into December is the strategy of employees taking one to two days a week in order to work ‘short weeks’ up until the new year – just over a quarter of employees have stated they plan to do exactly this. The first downside of this strategy is to the employee themselves; time to sufficiently recuperate is spread out and less effective, increasing the chance of illness arising further down the line.

Secondly, this then has a knock-on effect on the business itself, generating a resourcing dilemma with projects being delivered, in essence, alongside ‘part-time’ workers. Those left working are more likely to be overloaded with work and subsequently suffer from burnout and sickness, not to mention stress levels, mental health and wellbeing issues. The likelihood of losing momentum and increasing the friction in achieving yearly goals begins to look more real. Do your teams have the capacity to function and hit these end of year targets and customer obligations if just under 40% of your staff are off for an extended Christmas break?

Next year’s problem

Of course, there’s the false sense of security that things will settle back down into a ‘new normal’ next year, and we can get back to dealing with HR how we’ve always done it. The obvious problem that beckons is the carry-over of leftover holiday from 2020, with 35% of employees having a rollover of spare days for next year. What’s pulled out the stone is the double-edged sword of dealing with the holiday hangover from 2020 as well as 2021’s new escapades. Trying to account for financial liability, payroll data, holiday debt, and tracking who has what entitlement alongside their rollover, all on a spreadsheet, becomes incredibly complex and difficult to manage. This also strongly suggests that 35% of people will be actively requesting permission to roll over their days into next year, only adding to the mounting paperwork.

The dash to the beach

So, get ready for the holiday rush next year. With around a third of people choosing to carry over their holiday, brace yourselves for the numerous mass exoduses that await, with employees making the most of their holiday backlog and reclaiming those sunny trips they missed out on last year.

The most striking and obvious obstacle that awaits is the capacity challenge. With people potentially having 6 weeks of holiday to use in 2021, how are companies and individual teams going to plan and resource effectively to ensure cover and productivity when business picks up again? The inevitable consequences are further costs, inductions and (part-time) contracts, adding to the already augmented HR workload and increasing the mental as well as the financial burden.

The pile grows

This is further compounded when you add into the mix the month of March. This is where the predictable becomes the less predictable. Does this mark the end of furlough, or the start of holidays? When people finally return, will they immediately rush to take their backed-up leave, or store it up for the late spring and summer months? This mix is further shaken up when accounting for both a potential spike in illness and the very encouraging news of a mass rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. When people finally get back together, we will see a spike in other sickness, not to mention the 2 appointments per person needed for the vaccine, adding further layers to the accumulating HR pile. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly how these developments may play out and the effect they will have on working life, both in terms of absence and group meeting regulations, especially without the right tools.

A new year, a new era

It’s a dizzying prospect managing the accumulating and differing layers of data and trends that await us next year. How will all of this be tracked, reported and actioned? However, with the right systems in place, 2021 presents itself with the exciting opportunity to finally put an end to the paper and spreadsheets age and embark on a new era. Even predicting the predictable surge and disjointed nature of 2021 absence and sickness is going to be hard to manage with antiquated systems, let alone accounting for the unpredictable events that may spring up out of nowhere.

This is the return to work but not as we know it – businesses will be managing a return to non-normality, and the days of a full working week are gone. With people now largely out of office, reconciling simply has to happen online, and analytics around employee wellbeing and productivity will be more valuable than ever. Easy to access systems, visibility for all, real-time data and overview reporting will all be essential in navigating the topsy turvy events that await, as well as managing the trends we can bank on happening. The more companies can plan for 2021 and expect these hurdles, the more they will survive another tough and unpredictable year. A fully integrated, modern solution gives you those tools to help predict the (un)predictable.