Commenting on the latest official immigration statistics, Gerwyn Davies, Senior Labour Market Analyst at the CIPD.

On the surface, the data suggests that the Brexit vote has had a negative impact on the number of EU citizens that would like to live and work in the UK. However, despite a modest fall in recent months, EU net migration levels remain well above post-enlargement average levels due to a continued strong supply of EU15 and Bulgarian and Romanian nationals.

Initial fears that Brexit would have a material impact on employers’ ability to fill vacancies therefore seem to be somewhat premature. However, the rising proportion of EU citizens that have a job offer when they come to the live and work in the UK indicates that employers and jobseekers’ attitudes towards free movement of labour have already changed, with some clearly taking pro-active steps to offset the uncertainty that the vote has created.

However, while employers may be breathing a temporary sigh of relief, it remains to be seen how many EU citizens are still in wait-and-see mode before the negotiations have been resolved. The outcome of the government’s post-Brexit EU immigration policy could become a significant factor in deterring some EU nationals from coming to the UK, especially if the axe falls particularly hard on low-skilled roles.  Employers therefore need to respond now to the potential immigration fall out with a workforce development plan that offsets the potential threat of labour and skills shortages.”